Philippine President Benigno S. Aquino III warned Southeast Asian nations during April about Beijing's increasingly aggressive posture in the South China Sea. The area is becoming one of the most dangerous hotspots on the planet.
Despite talks going back to 2002, regional tensions have not only remained high but have continued to escalate. China Brief has outlined a number of incidents. In 2009, Chinese vessels clashed with the American surveillance ship "Impeccable." In 2010, although the United States maintained an officially neutral position (but with an increased area presence,) China informed the United States that it would not tolerate what it termed America's "interference." In 2011, Vietnam accused Chinese vessels of cutting cables on one oil survey ship and ramming the cables on another.
Tense standoffs have occurred between Chinese and Philippine vessels, continuing into 2012. Last month, three Chinese patrol boats confronted a Philippine naval ship near Scarborough Shoals in a dispute over fishing rights.
A Foreign Policy report by Robert Kaplan describes the South China Sea as the "future of conflict" in the world. The reasons are clear. For the first time, China's land borders are secure, allowing it to concentrate on expanding its influence abroad. The shipping that supplies a resource-hungry planet moves significantly through the region, which in itself is a future source of energy exploitation. Kaplan notes that "more than half the world's annual merchant fleet tonnage passes through...and a third of all maritime traffic." Indeed, more than six times the oil that passes through the Suez Canal and seventeen times that which passes through the Panama Canal transits the South China Sea's choke points.
Beijing, thirsty for energy assets and with a newly powerful navy, maintains that it has sovereignty over almost all of the South China Sea, contradicting the claims of other area nations and in defiance of the United Nations Law of the Sea.
The BBC reports that Chinese officials base their claims on the explorations of Chinese navigators in ancient times, a concept not only refuted but mocked by others. Last February, Lt. General Juancho Sabban of the Philippine Armed Forces' Western Command noted in a BBC interview, "By the same logic, Filipinos travelled to China centuries ago, so the Philippines should be able to claim some of China."
China's claim is ironic, at best. The last standing of the great Communist powers is using, essentially, a type of historical imperialist act that it has universally condemned in other nations to justify its own actions.
Beijing has not been cooperative in attempts to negotiate the issue through regional talks, preferring to deal separately with each national claimant, a tactic that allows it to use armed intimidation as an effective tool. On April 28, China's General Luo Yuan said his nation should be prepared for "war at all costs" to enforce its claims, according to a commentary posted onchina.org.cn. China has rejected attempts to litigate the matter before the International Tribunal on the Law of the Sea.
The problem can be seen most clearly in the heated territorial disputes between Manila and Beijing. While disagreements between the two nations have existed for some time, the rise of China's armed forces and the sharp reduction of the American Navy have transformed the problem from a political argument between diplomats to a military flashpoint between warships. As 2011 drew to a close, The Jakarta Post reported on an Indonesia Center of Democracy, Diplomacy and Defense study noting an escalated naval presence in the South China Sea that included 27 Chinese vessels, 26 from Taiwan, two from Malaysia and one from the Philippines.
Two particular areas, the Spratly Islands and the Scarborough Shoal, are the focus of an inflammatory disagreement between Manila and Beijing. They have, as noted by the CIA, no indigenous population, but rest in strategic waters relatively close to the Philippines.
As noted in an April Congressional Research Service Report written by Thomas Lum, "In 2011, Chinese naval forces reportedly harassed Philippine fishing and oil exploration vessels and erected structures in disputed waters of the South China Sea near the Philippine island of Palawan...The Philippine government has demanded that Beijing negotiate a code of conduct and settlement of claims with the principal regional body, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN.)" Philippine President Aquino increased his nations' paltry defense budget (about 0.9% of GDP, according to CIAestimates,) and called for more U.S. assistance.
The over 100 Spratly Islands are a resource-rich region claimed in whole or part by The Philippines, China, Taiwan, Vietnam, and Malaysia. Brunei also claims some portions of the abundant fishing grounds in the area. Similarly, The Scarborough Shoal is also a resource prize. The Georgetown Journalhas reported that estimates of at least 7 billion barrels of oil (at least 80% the capacity of Saudi Arabia) and up to 900 trillion cubic feet of natural gas lay in the region. The Congressional Research Service report notes that the oil and natural gas reserves lie within the Philippines' 200 mile Exclusive Economic Zone, although China has also laid claims to them.
The Obama Administration has refused to officially back Manila's rights to the Spratlys and Scarborough Shoal, but has engaged in joint regional exercises with the Philippine armed forces (AFP) a position consistent with that of its predecessors. At a joint meeting in Washington on April 30 that included U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, Philippines Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario, and Philippines Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin, Clinton stated:
"We both share deep concerns about...recent tensions in the South China Sea...In this context, the United States has been clear and consistent. While we do not take sides on the competing sovereignty claims to land features in the South China Sea, as a Pacific power we have a national interest in freedom of navigation, the maintenance of peace and stability, respect for international law, and the unimpeded, lawful commerce across our sea lanes. The United States supports a collaborative diplomatic process by all those involved for resolving the various disputes that they encounter. We oppose the threat of force or use of force by any party to advance its claims. And we will remain in close contact with our ally, the Philippines."
Tensions sparked by China's aggressive actions in the South China Sea have sparked a review of the inadequate strength of the Philippine Armed Forces (AFP.) The AFP is among the weakest in the world for a nation of its size-ranked 140th in strength by the CIA. Manila's Defense Secretary Gazmin believes China has singled out the Philippines for particularly harsh treatment because of its weak military, according to a report in the Philippine Daily Inquirer. The military of its chief external opponent, China, (there are ongoing internal indigenous issues as well) is among the worlds' most powerful. As recently analyzed in The NY Analysis of Policy & Government, Beijing's maritime strength is rivaled only by the US Navy in power. China's submarine force is nearly double that of America's. By 2015, its total fleet will be larger than that of the U.S. Navy.
In April, Manila appealed to Washington for help in improving the woefully inadequate condition of its armed forces. Foreign Secretary del Rosario was candid in his assessment of the Philippines' inadequate military, and urged the United States to step up its military assistance. Last month, as part of a regularly scheduled series of exercises, U.S. and Philippine forces engaged in a joint training maneuver entitled Balikatan 28. Not unexpectedly, Beijing took offense.
The South China Sea will remain a dangerous flashpoint, made more perilous by the reduced size of the U.S. Navy and the inability of regional nations to counter China's military prowess.This Article was produced by the COMACTA sponsored NY ANALYSIS OF POLICY & BUDGET.
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